By Pete Julius
For about a year now, our nation has been emerging from a recession. Stock market activity has picked up, businesses are investing again and productivity is up. However, our employment rate still pretty high. If we are in recovery, why are people not finding jobs, and what are the job projections through 2012?
There are many reasons why the job growth levels are not where they should be or where we would like them to be following a recession. Most people like to blame the number of jobs that are going to Mexico, India, China and other cost-competitive nations. In fact, there are other underlying reasons.
our current unemployment rate, as of February 2004, is 3.1% higher than in March 2001. More importantly, notice that about 1.8% of our labor force is reported as missing. What? What in the world does that mean? Well, it means that there are roughly 2 million workers who have either dropped out of the labor force entirely or have failed to find a new job. So, what are the underlying reasons for unemployment rate of 7.4% and the estimated missing 2 million workers?
One of the biggest impediments to our job growth is the paradigm shift in job type. Typically, when coming out of a recession, many of those who are laid off get to return to their old jobs. This time around it is much different. Most of the people who have lost their jobs in the past couple of years are less likely to be hired back this time around. Part of it can be blamed on some of those jobs going overseas. The other part is that we are moving into a knowledge-based economy, which requires a higher level of education and job training than the jobs that were lost to other countries. As a result, many workers are being forced into lower wage jobs, while others are having difficulty even finding a job.
In addition to this paradigm shift, we are currently experiencing a very high level of productivity. Through the use of technology and innovation, companies have learned to do more with less. Coupled with rising health care costs, this means that companies do not need to hire new employees, leaving more people wandering the streets looking for work. It must also be noted that the social, political and economic instabilities around the world have also hindered job growth. However, given all of these obstacles, there are pockets of activity and areas to focus on to improve the unemployment rate.
The first table below lists the top ten best projected industries from 2002 – 2012, while the second table lists the top ten worst for the same time period.
| Top Ten Best Projected Employment Projections (2002-2012) | |||||
| Total employment (000’s) | Median annual earnings (Dollars) | Education/training category | |||
| Occupation | 2002 | 2012 | Percent Change | ||
| Medical assistants | 365 | 579 | 58.9 | 23,940 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Network systems and data communications analysts | 186 | 292 | 57 | 58,420 | Bachelor’s degree |
| Physician assistants | 63 | 94 | 48.9 | 64,670 | Bachelor’s degree |
| Social and human service assistants | 305 | 454 | 48.7 | 23,370 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Home health aides | 580 | 859 | 48.1 | 18,090 | Short-term on-the-job training |
| Medical records and health information technicians | 147 | 216 | 46.8 | 23,890 | Associate’s degree |
| Physical therapist aides | 37 | 54 | 46.4 | 20,670 | Short-term on-the-job training |
| Computer software engineers, applications | 394 | 573 | 45.5 | 70,900 | Bachelor’s degree |
| Computer software engineers, systems software | 281 | 409 | 45.5 | 74,040 | Bachelor’s degree |
| Physical therapist assistants | 50 | 73 | 44.6 | 36,080 | Associate’s degree |
| Source: BLS | |||||
| Top Ten Worst Projected Employment Projections (2002-2012) | |||||
| Total employment (000’s) | Median annual earnings (Dollars) | Education/training category | |||
| Occupation | 2002 | 2012 | Percent Change | ||
| Shoe machine operators and tenders | 7 | 5 | -26.1 | 20,600 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Fishers and related fishing workers | 36 | 27 | -26.8 | 20,710 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Roof bolters, mining | 4 | 3 | -27.7 | 38,430 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders | 27 | 19 | -28.7 | 20,800 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Radio mechanics | 7 | 5 | -29.3 | 36,230 | Postsecondary vocational award |
| Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and tenders | 66 | 46 | -30.3 | 21,920 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Total employment (000’s) | Median annual earnings (Dollars) | Education/training category | |||
| Occupation | 2002 | 2012 | Percent Change | ||
| Shuttle car operators | 3 | 2 | -31.3 | 38,360 | Short-term on-the-job training |
| Sewing machine operators | 315 | 216 | -31.5 | 17,440 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Word processors and typists | 241 | 148 | -38.6 | 26,730 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
| Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders | 53 | 33 | -38.6 | 22,970 | Long-term on-the-job training |
| Source: BLS | |||||
It is interesting to note that the ten best jobs are service related and the ten worst are in manufacturing. Additionally, notice that the level of education is much higher for the top ten best. This is indicative of the trend of moving into a knowledge-based economy. Those jobs that are going to stay here and employ in the future are those that will require a higher level of education. Most importantly, as a BusinessWeek article reports, any job that is considered routine is in jeopardy of moving to a more cost-competitive country.
Sources:
Paul Kaihla (2004, March 23), “Offshoring Isn’t the Culprit,” Business 2.0. Retrieved from http://www.business2.com/b2/web/columns/0,,96,00.html
BusinessWeek, March 22, 2004, “Where Are the Jobs,” pages 36-55.