By Jeff Vedders

In the November 2003 issue of our newsletter, I provided a link to an article published in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review that outlined U.S. industry output and employment projections to 2010.

In February of this year, the Monthly Labor Review published an updated outlook that covers the time period from 2002 to 2012.  The author, Jay M. Berman, looks at industries by NAICS code and shows the number of jobs in 1992, 2002, and projections to 2010.  It also displays industry output for the same time period.

Here is the link to the pdf file:  http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art4full.pdf

Listed below are the industries expected to have the fastest employment growth and fastest employment declines through 2012.

Fastest Growing

NAICS Code Industry 2002 Jobs* 2012 Jobs* 2002-2012 Change* Average Annual Rate of Change
5112 Software publishers 256 429.7 173.7 5.3
5416 Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 731.8 1,137.40 405.6 4.5
6233, 6239 Community care facilities for the elderly and residential care facilities 695.3 1,077.60 382.3 4.5
5415 Computer systems design and related services 1,162.70 1,797.70 635 4.5
5613 Employment services 3,248.80 5,012.30 1,763.50 4.40
6241-3 Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services 1,269.30 1,866.60 597.3 3.9
6214-6, 6219 Ambulatory health care services except offices of health practitioners 1,443.60 2,113.40 669.8 3.9
2213 Water, sewage, and other systems 48.50 71.00 22.5 3.9
516, 518, 519 Internet services, data processing, and other information services 528.80 773.10 244.3 3.9
6244 Child day care services 734.20 1,050.30 316.1 3.6
5324 Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing 102.20 142.80 40.6 3.4
6211-3 Offices of health practitioners 3,189.90 4,418.80 1228.9 3.3
5322, 5323 Consumer goods rental and general rental centers 352.90 484.20 131.3 3.2
5152, 5175 Cable and other subscription programming and program distribution 220.90 299.80 78.9 3.1
713 Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries 1,307.60 1,717.30 409.7 2.8
485 Transit and ground passenger transportation 371.50 487.70 116.2 2.8
5414 Specialized design services 122.90 160.80 37.9 2.7
5611, 2 Office administrative and facilities support services 390.30 507.60 117.3 2.7
512 Motion picture and sound recording industries 387.10 503.10 116 2.7
61 Educational services 2,650.60 3,409.80 759.2 2.6

*thousands of jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Fastest Declining

NAICS Code Industry 2002 Jobs* 2012 Jobs* 2002-2012 Change* Average Annual Rate of Change
3152 Cut and sew apparel manufacturing 281.8 77.1 -204.7 -12.2
3151 Apparel knitting mills 49.6 20 -29.6 -8.7
3133 Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating mills 82.4 40.1 -42.3 -6.9
3161 Leather and hide tanning and finishing 8.6 4.5 -4.1 -6.3
313 Textile mills 293.2 156.9 -136.3 -6.1
3169 Other leather and allied product manufacturing 19.9 10.8 -9.1 -5.9
3132 Fabric mills 146.6 79.6 -67 -5.9
3159 Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing 26.2 15.1 -11.1 -5.4
3131 Fiber, yarn, and thread mills 64.2 37.2 -27 -5.3
3122 Tobacco manufacturing 33.2 20.2 -13 -4.8
2122 Metal ore mining 29.4 18 -11.4 -4.8
NA Federal Government enterprises 51.9 32.4 -19.5 -4.6
2121 Coal mining 74.9 52.3 -22.6 -3.5
3259 Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing 112.4 79.4 -33 -3.4
3311 Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing 107.1 76 -31.1 -3.4
211 Oil and gas extraction 122.5 88.4 -34.1 -3.2
3341 Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing 249.8 182.1 -67.6 -3.1
1131-2, 114 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping 67.6 50.4 -17.2 -2.9
3221 Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills 168.2 126.4 -41.8 -2.8
3252 Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing 114.3 88.5 -25.8 -2.5

*thousands of jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics