By Jeff Vedders
In the November 2003 issue of our newsletter, I provided a link to an article published in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review that outlined U.S. industry output and employment projections to 2010.
In February of this year, the Monthly Labor Review published an updated outlook that covers the time period from 2002 to 2012. The author, Jay M. Berman, looks at industries by NAICS code and shows the number of jobs in 1992, 2002, and projections to 2010. It also displays industry output for the same time period.
Here is the link to the pdf file: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art4full.pdf
Listed below are the industries expected to have the fastest employment growth and fastest employment declines through 2012.
Fastest Growing
| NAICS Code | Industry | 2002 Jobs* | 2012 Jobs* | 2002-2012 Change* | Average Annual Rate of Change |
| 5112 | Software publishers | 256 | 429.7 | 173.7 | 5.3 |
| 5416 | Management, scientific, and technical consulting services | 731.8 | 1,137.40 | 405.6 | 4.5 |
| 6233, 6239 | Community care facilities for the elderly and residential care facilities | 695.3 | 1,077.60 | 382.3 | 4.5 |
| 5415 | Computer systems design and related services | 1,162.70 | 1,797.70 | 635 | 4.5 |
| 5613 | Employment services | 3,248.80 | 5,012.30 | 1,763.50 | 4.40 |
| 6241-3 | Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services | 1,269.30 | 1,866.60 | 597.3 | 3.9 |
| 6214-6, 6219 | Ambulatory health care services except offices of health practitioners | 1,443.60 | 2,113.40 | 669.8 | 3.9 |
| 2213 | Water, sewage, and other systems | 48.50 | 71.00 | 22.5 | 3.9 |
| 516, 518, 519 | Internet services, data processing, and other information services | 528.80 | 773.10 | 244.3 | 3.9 |
| 6244 | Child day care services | 734.20 | 1,050.30 | 316.1 | 3.6 |
| 5324 | Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing | 102.20 | 142.80 | 40.6 | 3.4 |
| 6211-3 | Offices of health practitioners | 3,189.90 | 4,418.80 | 1228.9 | 3.3 |
| 5322, 5323 | Consumer goods rental and general rental centers | 352.90 | 484.20 | 131.3 | 3.2 |
| 5152, 5175 | Cable and other subscription programming and program distribution | 220.90 | 299.80 | 78.9 | 3.1 |
| 713 | Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries | 1,307.60 | 1,717.30 | 409.7 | 2.8 |
| 485 | Transit and ground passenger transportation | 371.50 | 487.70 | 116.2 | 2.8 |
| 5414 | Specialized design services | 122.90 | 160.80 | 37.9 | 2.7 |
| 5611, 2 | Office administrative and facilities support services | 390.30 | 507.60 | 117.3 | 2.7 |
| 512 | Motion picture and sound recording industries | 387.10 | 503.10 | 116 | 2.7 |
| 61 | Educational services | 2,650.60 | 3,409.80 | 759.2 | 2.6 |
*thousands of jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Declining
| NAICS Code | Industry | 2002 Jobs* | 2012 Jobs* | 2002-2012 Change* | Average Annual Rate of Change |
| 3152 | Cut and sew apparel manufacturing | 281.8 | 77.1 | -204.7 | -12.2 |
| 3151 | Apparel knitting mills | 49.6 | 20 | -29.6 | -8.7 |
| 3133 | Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating mills | 82.4 | 40.1 | -42.3 | -6.9 |
| 3161 | Leather and hide tanning and finishing | 8.6 | 4.5 | -4.1 | -6.3 |
| 313 | Textile mills | 293.2 | 156.9 | -136.3 | -6.1 |
| 3169 | Other leather and allied product manufacturing | 19.9 | 10.8 | -9.1 | -5.9 |
| 3132 | Fabric mills | 146.6 | 79.6 | -67 | -5.9 |
| 3159 | Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing | 26.2 | 15.1 | -11.1 | -5.4 |
| 3131 | Fiber, yarn, and thread mills | 64.2 | 37.2 | -27 | -5.3 |
| 3122 | Tobacco manufacturing | 33.2 | 20.2 | -13 | -4.8 |
| 2122 | Metal ore mining | 29.4 | 18 | -11.4 | -4.8 |
| NA | Federal Government enterprises | 51.9 | 32.4 | -19.5 | -4.6 |
| 2121 | Coal mining | 74.9 | 52.3 | -22.6 | -3.5 |
| 3259 | Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing | 112.4 | 79.4 | -33 | -3.4 |
| 3311 | Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing | 107.1 | 76 | -31.1 | -3.4 |
| 211 | Oil and gas extraction | 122.5 | 88.4 | -34.1 | -3.2 |
| 3341 | Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing | 249.8 | 182.1 | -67.6 | -3.1 |
| 1131-2, 114 | Forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping | 67.6 | 50.4 | -17.2 | -2.9 |
| 3221 | Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills | 168.2 | 126.4 | -41.8 | -2.8 |
| 3252 | Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing | 114.3 | 88.5 | -25.8 | -2.5 |
*thousands of jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics